A favorable corn earworm migration weather pattern is expected the next five days. Therefore, three of the next five days have Moderate corn earworm migration risks as low pressure in the Plains interacts with high pressure in the southeast United States. In between these two pressure centers, south to southwest winds are expected to blow persistently and will provide a prolonged corridor of winds to the north from source regions especially in north central Texas east into northwest Louisiana, southwest Arkansas, and southern Oklahoma.
As low pressure develops in eastern Colorado and western Kansas the next 24 hours, southerly winds will initially be confined mainly to the Plains region but also into the southwest portion of the corn-growing region. Low risks are in place for tonight into tomorrow morning from US 30 south and mainly west of US 63. By Friday night into Saturday morning, southerly winds and precipitation are expected to increase in strength and coverage. Therefore, Moderate corn earworm migration risks are predicted into southern Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and eastern Kansas with low risks as far north as northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin.
By the extended period (Saturday through Tuesday), Moderate corn earworm migration risks remain in place especially from Sunday night and Monday morning into Monday night and Tuesday morning as the warm front lifts north and a cold front in the Plains begins pushing east. South to southwest winds will remain of sufficient magnitude that areas as far north as US 20 in northern Iowa and Illinois and east into Indiana will have the possibility for more widespread flights. Continue to monitor subsequent forecasts for updates on this potential upcoming CEW flight.